6 months ago
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Indian government bond yields jumped on Friday, with the benchmark yield posting its biggest single-day rise in six months, tracking U.S. yields after elevated inflation reaffirmed doubts over interest rate cuts in the near future.
The yield on the benchmark Indian 10-year ended at 7.1794%, the highest since Jan. 24, after closing at 7.1112% in the previous session.
The yield posted its biggest single-session rise since Oct. 6 when the central bank had spoken about the use of open market sale of bonds to manage liquidity.
For the week, the yield rose six basis points, after rising seven bps in the first week of the financial year.
"The third successive hot inflation print in the U.S. has completely shaken expectations of both the extent and the timing of rate cuts in 2024. We continue to maintain that the Fed will not cut rates this year," said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global.
U.S. yields climbed to levels seen five months ago after the hotter-than-anticipated inflation data.
The two-year yield, the closest indicator of rate expectations, topped 5%, while the 10-year yield nearly touched 4.60%. The yield continued to remain around multi-month highs.
The inflation reading, along with strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data last week, has slashed the odds of a rate cut in June as well as the quantum of overall rate cuts in 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"As of today, the market is pricing in 42 bps of rate cut in 2024, which indicates the start of the easing cycle in November, but one bad data and the chances could ease to 25 bps," a trader with a primary dealership said.
Traders await India's consumer price inflation data that will be released later in the day, which likely eased to a five-month low of 4.91% in March from 5.09% in February, according to a Reuters poll.
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